Possible scenario
Costly Containment Stalemate
30% Chance
The coalition prevents a Houthi takeover of the strait but fails to generate enough local manpower or political cohesion for a decisive rollback. Sporadic missile and drone threats keep naval escorts, insurance costs, and rerouting decisions in place.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.9%
- Industrials -0.7%
- Consumer Cyclicals
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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