Possible scenario
Coalition Gains Ground
38% Chance
Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Yemen's internationally recognized government coordinate air, naval, and ground pressure to push Houthi units back from the immediate Bab el Mandeb approaches. This is the base case because Riyadh and Abu Dhabi have recently resumed defense coordination, but both still have incentives to keep the campaign limited.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.8%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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