Possible scenario
Valuation Reset Begins
25% Chance
The 87% VC share and record S&P 500 concentration are read as evidence that AI positioning has become crowded. Investors start reducing exposure to the largest AI-linked public names and private-market marks become harder to defend.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -2.7%
- Finance -1.0%
Tickers
- -3.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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