Possible scenario
Legal Scrutiny Escalates
23% Chance
The issue broadens beyond Congress if investigators identify gaps in payment timing, sanctions compliance, or disclosure records. This is less likely than a political inquiry but would create more persistent headline risk for the Trump administration.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Tickers
- DJT-3.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.