Possible scenario
Contained campaign fallout
35% Chance
The disclosure damages Sen. Roger Marshall politically, but the impact is mostly confined to Kansas campaign coverage and local court accountability questions. Republican partisanship, late-cycle timing, and Marshall's ability to frame the issue as an old private-practice matter keep the fallout from becoming a national market event.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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