Possible scenario
Gradual Price Relief
35% Chance
The most likely benign path is that refinery maintenance and unplanned outages ease while gasoline demand softens seasonally. Prices remain politically salient, but the market begins to discount lower pump prices into late November and December.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.3%
- Consumer Services +1.1%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.9%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals +0.2%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.