Possible scenario
Crude Supply Shock
20% Chance
A less likely but higher-impact outcome is that gasoline pressure is reinforced by a fresh crude rally. OPEC+ discipline, low spare capacity, or a geopolitical disruption would make U.S. pump prices harder to cool quickly.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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