Possible scenario
Negotiated De-escalation
20% Chance
Oman, Qatar, China, and European governments press Tehran and Washington into an emergency maritime arrangement. This is plausible because both sides can claim limited success while avoiding a sustained shutdown of the world's most important oil chokepoint.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -4.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+2.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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