Possible scenario
Escorts Contain Crisis
40% Chance
The United States, United Kingdom, and Gulf partners organize armed convoys through the Strait of Hormuz while warning Iran against further missile launches. This is the most likely path because Washington has strong incentives to restore tanker traffic without immediately expanding the war to Iranian territory.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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