Possible scenario
Direct Naval War
25% Chance
The missile attacks become the opening phase of a direct U.S.-Iran naval conflict. This remains less likely than controlled escalation, but the prior IRGC claim of a carrier hit and repeated strikes against shipping make miscalculation unusually plausible.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +6.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-3.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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