Possible scenario
Heavy Russian Response
25% Chance
The Kremlin chooses a sharper retaliatory response to show that attacks near Moscow carry costs. The escalation remains bilateral, but civilian infrastructure losses in Ukraine increase pressure on Western governments to deliver more air defenses.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.0%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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