Possible scenario
Deep-Strike Campaign
15% Chance
Ukraine follows the Moscow-area raid with a sustained campaign against Russian oil, logistics, air-defense, and military-industrial targets. The objective is to raise the domestic cost of the war for Russia while degrading missile and drone launch capacity.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.0%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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