Possible scenario
Recount-Level Finish
14% Chance
The race remains effectively tied through Election Day, with late mail ballots and ranked-choice reallocations determining the outcome. Given the 48% to 46% poll and Maine's history of independent voting, a razor-thin result remains plausible.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.