Possible scenario
G7 Paper-Over Compromise
40% Chance
The most likely outcome is a managed diplomatic compromise: Trump keeps the video feed off, but G7 officials preserve a limited energy-security package through deputies and bilateral channels. The United States avoids a public embrace of Zelensky while Europe, Japan, Canada, and the European Commission keep Ukraine grid support moving.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.5%
- Utilities +0.2%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.