Possible scenario
Europe Acts Alone
20% Chance
European governments conclude that Washington is unreliable on Ukraine energy security and move ahead without a full G7 consensus. This outcome preserves some support for Kyiv but confirms a deeper transatlantic split at a sensitive point before winter.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.8%
- Industrials +0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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