Possible scenario
Energy Ceasefire Push
25% Chance
Trump’s refusal of the video feed becomes part of a broader effort to force talks on a limited energy ceasefire rather than expand Western military support. Kyiv accepts talks because its grid is under attack, while Moscow tests whether Washington will pressure Ukraine more than Russia.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Utilities +0.1%
- Energy -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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