Possible scenario
French Prime Contractor Wins
38% Chance
France turns the SCAF breakup into a national industrial strategy, concentrating authority around Dassault Aviation for the crewed fighter and assigning major subsystems to Thales and Safran. This is the most likely path because Paris has long defended Dassault's design authority and now has political cover to move without German workshare constraints.
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.6%
- Technology +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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