Possible scenario
Rates Test Valuations
20% Chance
The rally's durability depends on whether Treasury yields remain contained. Strong data or sticky inflation would pressure long-duration growth equities, while softer data could validate the market's preference for AI and high-quality technology leaders.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.8%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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