Possible scenario
Orderly Rally Extends
40% Chance
The most likely path is a continuation of the AI-led advance, with investors treating the new high as confirmation that July's correction has been absorbed. Nvidia's late-August earnings momentum and resilient mega-cap demand keep dip-buyers active, though gains remain concentrated in technology and communications-heavy index leaders.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Bitcoin Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.7%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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