Possible scenario
Orderly 20-Year Exit
45% Chance
The Treasury formally ends new 20-year bond issuance through a routine refunding announcement, framing the change as a liquidity improvement rather than a deficit-financing shift. Investors largely welcome the removal of an unpopular tenor, with only modest changes to the broader curve.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Utilities +0.6%
- Finance +0.4%
- Technology +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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