Possible scenario
Issuance Mix Pressure
25% Chance
Scrapping the 20-year bond forces investors to focus on where the lost supply will go. If Treasury leans too heavily on 10-year and 30-year notes and bonds, the market may demand a slightly higher term premium despite the removal of a disliked security.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.3%
- Utilities -0.3%
- Finance
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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