Possible scenario
Buybacks Anchor Market
20% Chance
The end of 20-year issuance is paired with a more active buyback program, building on the $6 billion long-dated operation announced days earlier. This reduces liquidity concerns in off-the-run bonds and supports a modest rally in duration-sensitive assets.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Utilities +0.6%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.4%
- Finance +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.