Possible scenario
Measured Pause Prevails
45% Chance
The mixed Tankan gives Governor Kazuo Ueda enough cover to avoid an immediate rate increase while keeping normalization alive. This is the base case because recent BOJ comments were hawkish, but the survey weakens the case for acting at the very next meeting.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.5%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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