Possible scenario
Faster Normalization Resumes
25% Chance
The BOJ treats the Tankan softness as insufficient to alter its tightening bias, especially if inflation expectations and wage data remain firm. This outcome reflects the late-September push by some board members for faster hikes.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Bitcoin Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.1%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.