Possible scenario
Dovish Delay Extends
20% Chance
The Tankan becomes the first of several data points showing that Japan's manufacturing recovery is fragile. The BOJ shifts toward a longer wait, prioritizing confirmation from wages and domestic demand before tightening again.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Copper Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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