Possible scenario
GOP Election Day Rebound
30% Chance
Republicans narrow or overcome the Democratic early-vote edge through heavier Election Day participation. This is plausible because Nevada Republicans have increasingly relied on late voting, especially in rural counties and among less frequent voters.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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