Possible scenario
Democratic Lead Holds
40% Chance
Nevada Democrats continue expanding their combined mail and early in-person advantage, especially in Clark County. The 4.1-point statewide edge proves meaningful because Republican Election Day turnout is not large enough to erase the banked-vote gap.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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