Possible scenario
Upgrade Proceeds Smoothly
55% Chance
Most unprepared validators update to Agave v4.3 before the switch, leaving enough stake online for a normal Alpenglow activation. The 20.3% unprepared figure proves to be a late-stage coordination issue rather than a consensus-risk threshold.
Initial impacts
- Bitcoin Up
Tickers
- STKE+2.8%
- GLXY+0.4%
- COIN+0.3%
- HOOD+0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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