Possible scenario
Policy Tightening Risk
26% Chance
The PPI print strengthens the case for the European Central Bank to keep policy restrictive despite weak industrial momentum. Italian assets underperform as investors reassess the balance between inflation control, fiscal costs and growth.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.8%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.7%
- Industrials -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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