Possible scenario
Energy Inflation Persists
42% Chance
The jump in Italian producer prices is treated as evidence that the Iran-war energy shock is feeding directly into factory costs. Gas, power and refined-product inputs remain elevated, keeping pressure on Italy's manufacturers and euro-area inflation expectations.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.9%
- Non-Energy Materials -0.8%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.