Possible scenario
Contained AI Repricing
45% Chance
The most likely outcome is a sharp but contained repricing of AI-linked equities rather than a systemic market break. Investors mark down revenue assumptions for OpenAI-adjacent names, but the correction is treated as a valuation and disclosure problem concentrated in the AI supply chain.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Bitcoin Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.3%
- Finance -0.4%
- Business Services -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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