Possible scenario
Procedural off-ramp
16% Chance
The justices may avoid the constitutional question by finding a standing, jurisdictional, or procedural problem. That would leave the 160-year-old federal framework in place while lower courts or Congress decide whether the issue returns.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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