Ban largely upheld

The most likely outcome is that the Supreme Court preserves the federal restriction on home distilling, relying on Congress's taxing power and the long history of federal alcohol excise enforcement. The Court may view the ban as part of a registration-and-revenue system rather than a free-standing prohibition on personal conduct.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.