Possible scenario
Narrower GOP Bill
28% Chance
Republicans coalesce around a narrower proposal that bars new individual stock purchases but allows members to keep existing holdings. This tracks the January 2026 GOP position and offers leadership a way to claim ethics reform without forcing immediate divestiture.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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