Possible scenario
GOP Endorses Ban
34% Chance
Senate Republicans vote to support a broad congressional stock-trading ban, giving bipartisan sponsors such as Josh Hawley and Jon Ossoff enough momentum to pursue floor action. The outcome is plausible because Speaker Mike Johnson and several GOP lawmakers have already moved toward the issue, while public polling strongly favors restrictions.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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