Possible scenario
US Coercive Response
27% Chance
Washington treats the new attacks as proof that escorts alone are insufficient and expands military pressure on Iran. The most likely path is a limited response or strengthened convoy regime, but there is a material tail risk of direct US-Iranian exchange.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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