Possible scenario
De Facto Closure Holds
35% Chance
Iran’s claim that unauthorized Hormuz traffic has stopped becomes partly self-fulfilling as insurers, shipowners, and charterers refuse to transit without explicit protection. Gulf export flows are not fully shut, but enough cargoes are delayed to keep oil and freight markets under acute stress.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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