Possible scenario
Credit Scrutiny Persists
25% Chance
The bond sale clears, but investors and rating agencies remain focused on SoftBank's leverage, the junk rating, and the scale of OpenAI's projected cash burn through 2030. Strong demand helps near-term liquidity but does not resolve balance-sheet risk.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.2%
- Finance -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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