Possible scenario
National Template Expands
21% Chance
The Montana pledge becomes a test case for a larger national housing-affordability push, linking earlier Trump proposals on Fannie-Freddie support, investor homebuying limits, and federal land development. This scenario carries the largest market read-through because investors begin pricing a broader federal effort to subsidize mortgage access.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.9%
- Finance +0.7%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.6%
- Industrials +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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