Possible scenario
War-Cyber Attribution Dispute
18% Chance
Investigators consider whether the use of Ukrainian sites is opportunistic crimeware or connected to Russia-linked influence and intelligence operations. Attribution remains contested, but even a partial state-linked assessment would increase geopolitical cyber-risk sensitivity for a short period.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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