Possible scenario
Hamas Retaliates Locally
20% Chance
Hamas responds inside the Gaza-Israel theater with rockets, ambushes, hostage messaging, or attacks on IDF units. The conflict intensifies locally, but does not immediately widen into a broader Israel-Iran or Israel-Hezbollah confrontation.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.5%
- Industrials +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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