Possible scenario
Haddad Killed Confirmed
42% Chance
Israel confirms that the strike killed Izz al-Din al-Haddad, the most senior Hamas military figure still operating inside Gaza. Hamas loses another top battlefield commander after the deaths of Yahya Sinwar and likely Mohammed Sinwar, but its tunnel, clan, and brigade networks remain capable of continuing the war.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.2%
- Energy -0.2%
- Consumer Services +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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