Possible scenario
U.S. Pressure Limits Escalation
20% Chance
Washington, European capitals and Arab governments push Netanyahu to prevent a Gaza-style West Bank operation. This scenario is credible because the U.S. already rebuked annexation moves in 2025 and would likely fear Jordanian destabilization and broader regional blowback.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.1%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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