Possible scenario
Expanded West Bank Campaign
40% Chance
Israel turns Smotrich's demand into a broader security campaign across Jenin, Nablus, Tulkarm and refugee-camp areas, but stops short of formally declaring a Gaza-style war. The most likely path is a major escalation in raids, curfews and arrests because the government has already expanded West Bank operations since 2024 and faces strong pressure from far-right coalition members.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.