Possible scenario
Contained Security Crackdown
30% Chance
Israel intensifies arrests, checkpoints and targeted strikes but avoids the legal, military and humanitarian footprint of the Gaza offensive. This path is plausible because the IDF and Shin Bet may prefer intelligence-led operations over a costly occupation-style campaign across dense Palestinian cities.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.3%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.