Possible scenario
Prolonged Standoff
28% Chance
The encounter extends beyond a brief shadowing operation, with Chinese naval or coast guard vessels remaining close to the U.S. ship. The risk remains contained, but the longer duration increases regional tension and raises the chance of allied follow-on patrols.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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