Possible scenario
U.S. Military Escalation
25% Chance
A higher-casualty or U.S.-linked vessel attack triggers a broader American response against IRGC Navy, missile, and drone infrastructure. The most likely escalation remains controlled, but the tail risk of direct U.S.-Iran combat rises.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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