Possible scenario
Sustained Maritime Attrition
45% Chance
Iran continues missile, drone, and fast-boat attacks at an elevated but not closure-level tempo. The U.S. Navy, UK, France, and Gulf partners expand convoy operations, keeping most traffic moving while insurance and freight costs rise sharply.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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