Possible scenario
Partial Strait Closure
15% Chance
Iran attempts to disrupt the Strait of Hormuz directly through mines, exclusion warnings, or attacks on key shipping lanes. Even a partial closure would rapidly reprice oil, credit, and transport risk because Hormuz handles a large share of seaborne crude and LNG.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +6.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-3.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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