Possible scenario
Donor Audit Crackdown
38% Chance
The most likely response is a governance and procurement crackdown rather than an immediate abandonment of digital aid. The World Bank, U.S. Treasury, EU donors, and major NGOs would demand fee audits, wallet traceability, and caps on intermediaries after evidence that 2 to 6 cents per dollar was lost.
Initial impacts
- Bitcoin Down
Secondary impacts
- Business Services +0.6%
- Technology -0.5%
- Finance -0.3%
Tickers
- CRCL-2.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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